The Risk Assessment Method in Prognostic Models of Production Systems Management with Account of the Time Factor

Leonid Mylnikov, Martin Kuetz
European Research Studies Journal, Volume XX, Issue 3A, 291-310, 2017
DOI: 10.35808/ersj/710


The possibility of planning risks assessment and the setting of the planning horizon are analysed with account of the time factor basing. A risk metrics approach is used, with risks estimated as a time function given in tabular form for the purposes of master production.Dependence of the integrated planning risks on the accuracy of forecasts used is proved and a time point is identified after which the risk assessment value increases sharply.The study enables to obtain the values of planning risks integral assessment in management problems using forecast data for groups of indicators and parameters involved in decision-making.

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