Structural Asymmetry in Strategic Airlift: A Quantitative Assessment of European and NATO Transport Capability
Purpose: The research presented in this article provides a quantitative and structural assessment of the strategic airlift capabilities of the European Union, the European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and NATO as a whole. The study aims to determine whether Europe’s overall transport capacity is accompanied by a proportional capability in the heavy strategic airlift segment. Design/Methodology/Approach: In contrast to analyses based on nominal fleet size, the study converts fleet potential into operational airlift capacity expressed in tonnes of cargo over the D1 (first-day), D7 (weekly), and D30 (monthly) horizons. The model accounts for technical availability, the number of rotations determined by operational cycle time, usable payload at the reference distance, and intensity-sustainment coefficients. The analysis is conducted across three cargo baskets: General Cargo (GC), Oversize (OS), and Outsize (OX), with the OX segment – comprising outsize cargo requiring heavy strategic platforms - treated as a key variable in assessing force-projection capability. Findings: The results indicate that Europe generates a significant share of NATO’s total transport volume; however, its contribution in the OX segment remains substantially lower than its volume-based share. The capacity to transport heavy combat equipment is overwhelmingly concentrated in the US component, resulting in an asymmetric distribution of transport capabilities within the Alliance. A qualitative assessment of planned medium-class platform deliveries suggests that Europe's capacity for standard cargo could increase without removing the structural asymmetry in heavy strategic airlift. Practical implications: The findings provide a basis for assessing capability gaps in European strategic airlift and for distinguishing improvements in overall transport volume from persistent limitations in the transport of heavy and outsize military equipment. Originality value: The model developed in this study also makes it possible to distinguish volume-based autonomy from structural autonomy and provides a comparative framework for analysing persistent proportions of transport capability within the collective security system.