Dilemmas and Consequences: The Role of Intelligence in the Context of Neglecting its Analysis in the Decision-Making Process
Purpose: The purpose of this article is to analyse the role of intelligence services in the political decision-making process, with particular emphasis on the consequences of neglecting intelligence analysis by decision-makers. The study seeks to identify the determinants that lead political actors to disregard intelligence inputs and to explain why accurate and timely intelligence information does not always translate into effective decisions, including cases of political non-decision. Design/Methodology/Approach: The article adopts a qualitative research design grounded in the realist theory of state security and political decision-making theory. The analysis is conducted using the process-tracing method, which enables the reconstruction of causal mechanisms linking intelligence activities, the flow of analytical information, and the behaviour of decision-making centres. The study is supported by comparative historical case studies drawn from military conflicts, counterterrorism, electoral interference, and contemporary security crises. Findings: The findings demonstrate that the quality or accuracy of intelligence does not primarily determine the failure to utilise intelligence information in decision-making processes, but by the attitudes and characteristics of decision-makers. Biological factors (such as health, age, and biological rhythms), personality traits (including authoritarian tendencies and cognitive rigidity), and external situational factors (notably crisis conditions and stress) significantly influence the rejection or marginalisation of intelligence analysis. Practical implications: The results underscore the need to strengthen institutional mechanisms to ensure the effective integration of intelligence analysis into political decision-making. These findings may inform reforms in national security governance, intelligence oversight, and crisis management frameworks. Originality/Value: The article contributes to the literature by offering a multidimensional explanation of the underutilisation of intelligence that extends beyond organisational or informational shortcomings. The article's originality lies in combining realist security theory with process tracing and rich empirical illustrations, thereby advancing understanding of the human factors underlying intelligence-related decision-making failures.