Cargo Theft as a Systemic Risk in Global Supply Chains: Data, Modus Operandi and Emerging Trends (2019-2025)
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse contemporary trends in cargo theft between 2019 and 2025 and to assess how these developments reflect broader transformations in the risk environment of international logistics. The study focuses on geographical distribution, dominant operational typologies and emerging criminal patterns, including the growing convergence between physical and cyber-enabled thefts. It further aims to highlight the implications of these changes for insurance and supply-chain risk management, viewing cargo theft as a systemic rather than isolated phenomenon. Design/Methodology/Approach: The research is based on longitudinal and comparative analysis of multi-source datasets from the Transported Asset Protection Association (TAPA EMEA), TT Club & BSI, IUMI, and Munich Re. These institutional reports were complemented by academic and industry studies covering criminological and operational dimensions of cargo crime. Descriptive and interpretive methods were applied to identify key spatial and temporal trends, while cross-referencing allowed the verification of recurring modus operandi and their correlation with market and technological shifts. The study is limited primarily to road-freight incidents but incorporates selected examples from maritime and air transport to demonstrate cross-modal convergence. Findings: Results confirm a steady increase in both the frequency and sophistication of cargo theft incidents during 2019-2025. Three persistent structural tendencies are identified: (1) the geographical concentration of theft along major transport corridors, (2) the persistence of facility-based incidents linked to insufficient parking security, and (3) the expansion of cyber-enabled and fraud-based operations. Quantitative data show that in-transit thefts remain dominant (41% of global incidents in 2024), while fraud-based thefts rose by over 80% year-on-year, overtaking facility-based cases. The most frequently stolen commodities include food and beverages (21%), electronics (10%) and agricultural goods (10%). The findings further indicate that post-pandemic logistics reconfiguration and digitalisation have shifted cargo theft from opportunistic to intelligence-driven forms. Practical Implications: The study highlights the urgent need for integrated preventive frameworks combining physical security, digital verification and insurance-based risk governance. Key recommendations include expanding certified secure parking, adopting multi-factor carrier verification, improving loss-data harmonisation, and strengthening cooperation between logistics operators, insurers and law-enforcement agencies. The results have direct relevance for risk assessment, underwriting and claims management in the cargo insurance sector. Originality/Value: This paper contributes original value by consolidating fragmented cargo theft data and interpreting them through an interdisciplinary analytical framework bridging criminology, logistics and insurance studies. It demonstrates that cargo theft serves as an indicator of systemic fragility in global trade rather than a peripheral criminal concern. The study provides both empirical evidence and conceptual insight, forming a basis for further research on risk transfer mechanisms and insurance responses.