Governance Performance and the Dynamics of Migration Processes in Municipalities: A Local Development Perspective in Poland
Purpose: The aim of the article is to assess the long-term diversity and stability of migration patterns in Polish municipalities in the years 2003-2022. The article also presents two research hypotheses: H1: The type of municipality significantly differentiates its migration results, with rural municipalities achieving a positive migration balance at lower ranking positions than urban and urban-rural municipalities.; H2: The migration position of municipalities shows high stability over time. Design/Methodology/Approach: The research was conducted on a data set covering all municipalities in Poland in the years 2003-2022. A multi-stage approach was used: (1) ranking of municipalities according to the value of the migration indicator ZW (registrations-deregistrations); (2) analysis of the indicator distribution in order to assess the structure of inflow and outflow; (3) analysis of quartile transitions, enabling the assessment of the stability of migration positions. Findings: The study results indicate clear and persistent differences between types of municipalities: rural municipalities achieve a positive migration balance at significantly lower rankings than urban and urban-rural municipalities. The indicator's distribution reveals a strong asymmetry—most municipalities record a negative balance, with positive values occurring only in a small fraction of municipalities. Quartile analysis confirms the high stability of migration positions, and large quartile changes are rare. These results indicate that migration is a structurally established and long-term outcome that can serve as a reliable indicator of governance performance. Practical Implications: The persistent variation in migration status between types of municipalities indicates the need to design tailored territorial policies. The persistent negative migration balance in most municipalities suggests the need for long-term support for units systematically losing residents. The stability of quartile positions demonstrates that improving the migration situation requires consistent, multi-year efforts, as significant changes are rare. At the same time, rural municipalities maintaining a positive migration balance can serve as a source of best practices, indicating which solutions foster increased attractiveness for settlement. Originality/Value: This study adds value by presenting a long-term analysis of migration as a behavioral indicator of governance performance. It combines a ranking approach with quartile change paths, offering a multidimensional assessment of the sustainability of municipalities' migration positions. The article fills a research gap regarding the long-term sustainability of migration patterns and demonstrates that migration can serve as a comparable measure of local governance outcomes.