The Development of Electromobility and the Increase in Electricity Consumption in EU Countries
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to estimate the increase in electricity consumption in EU countries following the mass introduction of electric passenger cars. Design/Methodology/Approach: Based on data on the number of passenger cars and electricity consumption in the base year, as well as assumptions regarding the share of electric cars, annual mileage, and average energy consumption, we simulated the increase in electricity demand in the target year. Various scenarios for the development of electromobility were considered. Findings: In a scenario of 100% transition of passenger cars to electric propulsion, the increase in energy consumption for the entire EU compared to the base year 2023 would be approximately 25.2% under more favorable assumptions regarding mileage and energy consumption per 100 km and 34.6% under a less favorable scenario. For Scandinavian countries, this increase would be much smaller, while for Eastern and Southern European countries it would be larger. Practical implications: The increase in electricity consumption in the event of mass introduction of electric cars could pose a significant barrier to the implementation of EU climate policy. A substantive discussion should be undertaken as to whether it is possible to ensure stable electricity sources in this situation, especially since energy demand exhibits significant seasonal fluctuations (monthly, weekly, and daily), so the increase in generating capacity of conventional power plants would have to be even greater than the estimates presented in the paper. Originality/Value: The topic discussed in this paper, concerning forecasting electricity consumption in the context of electromobility, is crucial to ensure the stability of the energy system and supporting national energy transitions, as well as for the proper organization of infrastructure. The paper ignores the justification for the EU's expansive climate policy and does not delve into environmental issues, as this is a very broad topic that would require a separate study.