Food Production Surpluses and Domestic Energy Supply in Poland and the EU-27: A Comparative Analysis
Purpose: To compare two complementary mechanisms shaping food system performance in Poland between 2010 and 2023: (i) the production–trade mechanism, reflected in food self-sufficiency ratios (SSR), and (ii) the domestic nutritional availability mechanism, captured by dietary energy supply (DES). The study evaluates whether rising production surpluses translate into improved domestic nutritional outcomes and how Poland’s trajectory compares with that of the EU-27. Design/Methodology/Approach: The analysis uses harmonised FAOSTAT Food Balance Sheets (2010–2023) for Poland and the EU-27. SSR is calculated as the ratio of domestic production to total availability, while DES (kcal/capita/day) is examined for five key food groups: cereals, vegetables, fruits, meat and milk. Trend analysis, cross-group comparisons and Poland–EU differentials are used to identify reinforcing versus diverging mechanisms linking production and domestic availability. All indicators are constructed transparently, using consistent definitions and year-to-year comparability. Findings: SSR in Poland shows a strong and continuous rise, surpassing 130% in 2023 and diverging from the EU-27. DES trends, however, follow a fragmented pattern: dairy and meat DES increase substantially, whereas DES from cereals, fruits and vegetables stagnates or declines. This reveals a structural decoupling between production surpluses and domestic nutritional availability in plant-based food groups, while animal-source foods show alignment between SSR and DES. The duality is consistent across food groups, robust across years, and clearly differentiates Poland’s profile from broader EU trends. Practical Implications:. Policies should prioritise strengthening domestic availability of nutrient-dense plant foods—particularly fruits, vegetables and cereals—while maintaining export competitiveness in surplus sectors. Effective interventions include improving supply-chain stability, investing in storage and distribution infrastructure, monitoring domestic versus export flows, and promoting dietary patterns aligned with public health objectives. Integrated, cross-sectoral approaches are required to ensure that high production strength translates into improved domestic nutritional outcomes. Originality/Value: This study offers a clear, decision-relevant comparison of “how much is produced” versus “how much is nutritionally available,” providing a framework for diagnosing production–nutrition asymmetries in national food systems. It contributes one of the first systematic, long-term comparisons of SSR and DES dynamics for Poland in the context of the EU-27 and highlights structural mechanisms that shape both food security and dietary quality.