Food Prices and the Right to Food: Assessing Trends in Ukraine During Wartime
Purpose: The purpose of the article is to investigate and analyse the changes in food prices in Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale armed aggression in February 2022, with a detailed focus on key food groups, as well as national and regional peculiarities. Design/Methodology/Approach: The methodology for the analysis of changes in food prices depends on various factors, primarily determined by the objectives of the analysis. This analysis is intended to offer insights into critical areas and provide direction for further deepening the analysis of prices, laying the groundwork for justifying approaches and focusing on further government interventions (regulations) in this field. As the war significantly impacts all sectors and regions of the country; this influence is more vivid for regions closer to the front line. Consequently, substantial differentiation among regions can be expected in terms of food prices and their fluctuations in response to the new challenges of wartime. The level of price changes will also vary across different types of food. As military actions have varying impacts across different regions and markets, the analysis focused on average prices at the regional level, as provided by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Findings: The analysis reveals that price changes in March 2022 were most prominently depicted across all three heatmaps, reflecting the shock impact of the onset of full-scale warfare. Regions directly affected by hostilities and those nearby stand out distinctly. In other areas, additional factors contributing to food price escalation include heightened demand from population migration flows, increased supply chain costs, particularly for non-local products, and other influencing factors. Throughout 2022, people, especially in rural areas, increased production, such as vegetables – potatoes, cabbage, beets, etc., leading to a lesser growth or even a decrease in prices for these products. In the group with moderate year-on-year growth, a portion of processed products, where large food producers or major traders and retailers are involved, experienced a relatively lower impact. An analysis of price changes in March 2022 compared to January 2022, unlike annual comparisons, reveals extremely sharp monthly price fluctuations, for which the population had little time to adjust. Such rapid price changes call for prompt food support programs. During this short period, there is minimal impact from inflation, but a maximal impact from the shockwaves of the onset of full-scale war. These shockwaves partially subside in the subsequent months but include inflationary factors. For many products, there is a minimal increase in prices in March; however, in April, the increase becomes quite significant, indicating delayed market reactions to price shocks. In the medium-term perspective, the summer prices (June 2022) reflect stronger inflationary effects, along with seasonal influences on certain goods (as we compare summer and winter prices). Some shocks diminish as logistics are streamlined, producers and the population adapt, while for certain goods, on the contrary, previous stocks are depleted, and new logistics options prove more costly. When comparing the prices in January 2023 to January 2022, there is already a minimal impact of seasonality as the system has reached a relatively balanced state. These changes indicate the cumulative impact of all annual factors. Practical Implications: The findings highlight the urgent need for targeted policy interventions to stabilize food prices and safeguard access to food during armed conflict. They also underscore the importance of integrating human rights principles into national food security strategies, particularly in conflict-affected regions like Ukraine. Originality/Value: The findings highlight the urgent need for targeted policy interventions to stabilize food prices and safeguard access to food during armed conflict. They also underscore the importance of integrating human rights principles into national food security strategies, particularly in conflict-affected regions like Ukraine.