Spatial Variation of Employment Growth in Poland in 2005-2021
Purpose: The aim of the paper is to identify the geographical variation of sectoral employment dynamics in Poland in the years 2005-2021 and to present the most important spatial determinants of different growth trajectories of second-level administrative units. Design/Methodology/Approach: The principal research tool is based on classic shift-share analysis multifactor partitioning model (MFP) as a technique allowing the reduction of compositional effects and avoiding the so-called Simpson's paradox, with which the traditional approach is burdened. According to the conceptual framework, the total employment observed in 380 powiats in five aggregated activity sections (agricultural sector, manufacturing sector, distribution and communication services, producer and business services, public and personal services) between 2005 and 2021 is decomposed into five components - national effect, industry-mix effect, region effect, industry-region interaction effect and allocation effect. Three of the effects are fundamental, reflecting the impact of specific spatial factors on employment dynamics. Findings: Contextual factors are the most important in shaping regional employment dynamics, followed by related variety and regional specialisation. No region with a low region effect has exceeded the national employment growth rate, and some regions with a very good industry-mix have not reached the national growth rate due to a weak region effect. Contextual impacts correlate very strongly with urban-rural polarisation, regional specialisation is reasonably well embedded in the west-east heterogeneity, while related variety performs successfully in both identified arrangements. Practical Implications: The results obtained should contribute to a better understanding of the intricacies of actual development trajectories, taking into account the diversity that exists at the micro-scale, and to an appreciation of the research workshop of socio-economic geography as a science predisposed to speak more forcefully on issues of shaping adequate state regional policy. Originality/Value: The paper is verifying the conceptual assumptions of the multifactor partitioning tool, which is still not well-known and has not yet been approved on Polish materials.