Forecasting Macroeconomic Indicators for Selected European Union Countries

Aldona Migala-Warchol, Agata Surowka
European Research Studies Journal, Volume XXV, Issue 2, 420-431, 2022
DOI: 10.35808/ersj/2930


Purpose: The aim of the article is to forecast the level of economic indicators using data collected from the Databases of the Eurostat. Design/methodology/approach: The data were collected for the period from 2010 to 2022 year for selected European Union countries, Poland, Greece and Germany. Variables used in the publication are, GDP, export of goods and services and final consumption expenditure of households. In the second part of the article the method of forecast was used - ratio analysis for additive model for the indicators used GDP, export of goods and services and final consumption expenditure of households. Findings: The results showed that Poland and Greece still need to be involved in improving the macroeconomic situation of both countries, as there is still a significant difference between the results of the macroeconomic indicators forecast for these two countries compared to Germany. Practical implications: Poland and Greece must continue to improve the competitiveness of their economies. The current situation shows that there is a two-speed Union. On the basis of the results obtained, it can be seen that Germany differs significantly from Poland and Greece. Originality value: The study contributes to the discussion on the spatial differentiation of the level of development in the European Union. The results of the research and recommendations may be useful for Poland and Greece in the search for ways to more fully use the potentials of these countries.

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