Seasonality in Air Traffic and Incidence of Dangerous Occurrences in the Polish Air Transport Market in 2010-2017

Jaroslaw Kozuba, Stanislaw Sirko, Bartłomiej Czerkowski, Robert Wieszala, Ryszard Szynowski
European Research Studies Journal, Volume XXIV, Special Issue 4, 87-97, 2021
DOI: 10.35808/ersj/2584


Purpose: The aim of the research was to identify the relation between flight operations conducted in the summer and winter seasons, and dangerous occurrences which took place then. Design/Methodology/Approach: The research involved the indicator method used in time series analysis. The interdependence between the quantitative variables was determined with the use of the Pearson line correlation coefficient. Statistical data for the analyses was obtained from the European Coordination Centre for Accident and Incident Reporting Systems (ECCAIRS) and the Polish Civil Aviation Authority. Results: Relations were identified between the variables of the number of passengers carried, the number of flight operations conducted, adverse aviation occurrences in 2010-2017, and the winter and summer seasons of the year. The results indicate that these variables are interrelated. Practical implications: The approach employed in analysing the relation between the variables concerned can be applied to processes of pro-active civil aviation safety management. Originality/value: The approach to analysing the variables shown in the paper has not been widely presented in the literature to date.

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