The Influence of Weather in Determining the Probability of Detecting an Object in Distress during SAR Operations

Diana Kotkowska, Kinga Drwiega
European Research Studies Journal, Volume XXIV, Issue 3B, 470-481, 2021
DOI: 10.35808/ersj/2476


Purpose: Planning an effective rescue operation is a subject of many factors. The success of SAR operation depends primarily on the accuracy of the information received and the conditions on the scene. Due to the impossibility of eliminating the danger and risk of accidents at sea, it becomes necessary to prevent and minimize their possible consequences to the greatest extent possible. The basic idea of the study is to develop a research scheme to estimate both the most likely position of an object in distress and to determine the possibility of a successful SAR operation. Design/Methodology/Approach: The research was carried out using the SAR Navi-Harbour. TRANSAS 5000 module to plan and monitor rescue actions in a selected area. Simulations of conducting SAR operations were designed in the Baltic Sea area using the actual available SAR equipment. Findings: This paper presents the influence of various factors on the effectiveness of SAR operations. It determines the probability of object detection (POD) and the likelihood of success (POS) for different weather condition scenarios that allow an analysis of the effectiveness of used SAR equipment and chosen searching patterns, which directly impact the success of the SAR operation. Practical Implications: The results obtained in the simulations support the decision-maker at all stages of SAR rescue planning. The use of the simulation method becomes an alternative to the traditional way of planning. Originality/Value: The article shows the need to use available market simulators to support the whole SAR operation at each stage.

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