Navigational Risk of Ships Proceeding Through a Fairway

Stanisław Gucma, Rafal Gralak, Bartosz Muczynski, Mateusz Bilewski
European Research Studies Journal, Volume XXIV, Issue 3, 811-832, 2021
DOI: 10.35808/ersj/2385


Purpose: Navigational risk is a criterion for navigational safety assessment on fairways. To estimate navigational risk, we must determine the probability of an accident and its consequences. Design/Methodology/Approach: The authors have developed methods of determining navigational risks caused by deterioration in navigational conditions during the passage of ships through the waterway system and for the estimation of risk caused by shipboard equipment failures. In a simulation experiment, full ships with 5.000 DWT to 100.000 DWT capacity performed emergency stopping after rudder jamming. Findings: The results of simulation tests developed in the form of mathematical models constitute data for the determination of ship's navigational risk due to rudder failure. Practical implications: The models can be used for defining simplified relationships allowing authors to determine the width of safe emergency manoeuvring areas. Originality value: The procedure has been developed and navigation algorithms for determining the risk associated with the failure of the steering of the vessel passing through the different types of the fairway.

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