The Use of Mathematical Models Describing the Spread of Covid-19 in Strategic State Security Management

Anna Borucka, Edward Kozlowski, Piotr Oleszczuk, Dariusz Mazurkiewicz
European Research Studies Journal, Volume XXIII, Special Issue 3, 82-98, 2020
DOI: 10.35808/ersj/1855


Purpose: The security system of each country should be capable of identifying and eliminating potential threats. However, such events' variety and unpredictability make it impossible to be ready for each scenario, should one materialize. Situations posing a national security threat require that effective actions be undertaken, including risk prevention and mitigation of its effects. Decisions must be taken responsibly and competently. However, they also must be taken quickly, as time is a key factor in any emergency. Extreme caution must be exercised, as citizens' lives and health may depend on the strategic level decisions. Therefore, any instruments to support the decisions, enabling the best choices to be made, are very much desirable. Knowledge of the scale of the phenomenon and its evolution is particularly useful and important here. It is easier to fight an opponent knowing their strengths and potential. Design/Methodology/Approach: To know required, mathematical models may be constructed describing the phenomenon in question and its development over time. This paper presents and compares mathematical models describing the SARS-Cov-2 virus's evolution in four EU countries (Poland, Germany, Great Britain, and Italy). Findings: The ability to describe the evolution of the pandemic in mathematical terms and rely on the results of such modeling in strategic state security management. The results obtained were compared with the actions taken in the countries in question. Practical Implications: Furthermore, the importance of reliable information in making crucial decisions on the national level and achieving the appropriate degree of citizen security was emphasized.

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